Current Strength preserves the v2 roster outlook: usable starting options and depth now, informed by longer-term context. Published projections anchor the estimate. Up to three completed seasons provide a career baseline, so one poor stretch does not erase a longer track record. Recent seasons receive more weight.

Rest of Season uses remaining-season forecasts in a separate roster stress index. Legal starting assignments are compared with one starter unavailable at a time; bench players earn credit only when they can fill a slot. Equal scenario weights are an index definition, not injury probabilities. This is not a sum of every rostered player's points, an expected managed-lineup season score, or a best-ball outcome simulation.

Age, experience and rushing contribution make small adjustments to the career component where historical testing supported them. Tight ends receive no automatic age adjustment. Rookies use comparable players with similar NFL draft position and workload; this can raise or lower their outlook. A healthy zero forecast does not receive a rookie boost.

Touchdown spikes are pulled toward historical opportunity rates. Snap share helps explain role; it is not a second points bonus. Bye weeks and games already played do not erase a player’s outlook. Injury and reserve status receive modest roster-value discounts, not predicted return dates.

We build each team’s best eligible starting lineup, then add a small, capped credit for useful bench players above the league’s starter baseline. FLEX, Superflex and reception premiums use your league’s settings. Record and matchup luck have no weight.

Offensive forecasts use the same modeled scoring rules as your Dashboard. Unmodeled bonuses may be absent from forecasts. Kickers and defenses keep the site’s published/default scoring convention.

Power index: 100 is this league’s average roster strength. Position ranks compare each position’s contribution across teams. These are estimates, not win probabilities or guaranteed rest-of-season totals. Missing data lowers the evidence rating.

Research uses 2012–2025 nflverse statistics, player backgrounds and available snap counts. Historical comparisons support the career component; rookie results are more uncertain, especially at RB. These tests do not measure the accuracy of the full live model. Component weights and availability discounts remain model assumptions.

Read the research and validation results · Weighted opportunity research. Public research data is derived from nflverse under CC BY 4.0.